As midterm elections loom, some pundits are cautiously forecasting a return by Democrats to seats of power in many local, statewide, and national races. But in a conversation hosted Oct. 6 by the Nelson A. Rockefeller Center of Public Policy, two political analysts and a Democratic campaign strategist warned against poll-based predictions, and discussed lessons that might be gleaned from whatever voters decide.
The fast-paced discussion with Tim Miller, host of The Bulwark podcast, Sam Stein ’04, managing editor of The Bulwark, and Lis Smith ’05, a Democratic strategist who was senior adviser for Pete Buttigieg’s 2020 presidential campaign, was moderated by Russell Muirhead, the Robert Clements Professor of Democracy and Politics and co-director of the Political Economy Project. It was co-sponsored by Dartmouth Dialogues, the Office of the Dean of the Faculty of Arts and Sciences, and the Office of the Associate Dean for the Social Sciences.
Muirhead began by asking what Democrats might learn if they prevail in November.
“The House and the Senate, should we win them, are going to be won by Democrats who are trying to persuade people back to their side, whether they’re independents or they’re Republicans,” Smith told about 190 people in Filene Auditorium and another 240 watching a livestream.
“What we do need to understand is that there is no one way to be a Democrat, and if we want to be a majority party then we’ve got to really embrace that big-tent thinking.”
Stein cautioned against overconfidence.
“I’m sitting here mildly petrified that we have a massive polling misinterpretation again,” he said. “I saw something today. Iowa farmers are not actually answering the phones, and the polls might be just overstating. There’s a lot of literature showing that if your party’s doing really poorly, you’re not inclined to answer a pollster.”
Miller, a former Republican political strategist and prominent “Never Trumper,” said President Donald Trump’s performance in office may end up hurting his party and helping Democrats. But Miller sees a big challenge for Democrats: demographics.
“I’m pretty sure the median voter in the country is about 62, white, and didn’t go to college,” he said. “And for Democrats to win, especially with the way that the Electoral College and the Senate biases towards that group even more, they have to figure out how to get more of those people in.”
Smith said she’s pleased to see her party field unconventional, charismatic candidates who lead interesting, even challenging lives.
“We have a smoke jumper in Montana, someone who jumps out of planes to put out fires,” she said. “We’ve got a Tejano music star in the Rio Grande Valley, Bobby Pulido.”
Muirhead wondered whether, in this time of extreme polarization, the panel saw any hope for restoring civil debate among political combatants.
“In a campaign, it’s zero sum,” he noted. “But in universities all over the country, leaders are trying to cultivate dialogue. While the conservative or Republican Party in the United States is becoming a permanently MAGA party, like right wing parties in Europe, and the Democratic Party tries to become something out of all this diversity, is dialogue possible?”
Smith nodded.
“I think right now it’s more possible on the local level. I think it’s more possible on the municipal level. I’m just going to be realistic. But I don’t think that just because things are bad right now means that we have to say that this has to be what politics is forever,” she said.
During the Q&A, Luna Zhang ’29 asked the experts to comment on the “populist upsurge” at both ends of the political spectrum.
“I think it’s going to continue, because if you look at some data today, real wage growth is now down, and the stock market is up,” Miller said. “I think that Democrats have to embrace a healthy politics of populism that’s not demagogic.”
Populism takes many forms, Smith said.
“One sort of populism that a lot of Democrats are latching onto that I think is really smart is institutional populism, saying that, you know, there’s a lot of corruption in our government right now.”
Despite her disappointment in some top-level Congressional incumbents, Smith said she stays involved in grassroots campaigns because “There are really good—I mean good ‘capital G’ people—who want to step up for whatever reason and run for office. Run for office statewide in Kansas. A place that hasn’t sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since the 1930s.”
Looking ahead to presidential primaries likely to draw candidates to New Hampshire, Smith urged the audience to “take the opportunity to go and see everyone. Understand that someone who you may have never heard of, you might not have heard of right now, that person could end up being the nominee. It’s really, really important for everyone to keep an open mind.”
Reflecting on the discussion, Andrew Klis ’27, a government major, said, “My biggest takeaway was something completely different from what I thought going in. I would think that our goal is to kind of bring people to the center. But they actually said that that’s not the goal of each party right now. Instead, it’s to find candidates who are as diverse as the population that is voting.”
Max Corbett ’30 appreciated the candor of both Miller and Stein.
“I think just because of their kind of independent role at The Bulwark, they could be blunt,” he said. “I really appreciated how honest they were.”
Earlier in the day, several students enrolled in Election Polling, a government course taught by Rockefeller Center Director Jason Barabas ’93, attended a lunch with Stein and Smith, and Stein and Miller also joined a student coffee hour. All three panelists also met with members of the Dartmouth Democrats student group.
Forthcoming events in Rocky’s midterms series include, on Oct. 12, a conversation with Cinde Warmington, Democratic candidate for N.H. governor, and, on Oct. 14, a conversation with Lily Tang Williams, Republican candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in New Hampshire’s 2nd Congressional District.
